The National Retail Federation expects holiday retail sales to increase 2.3 percent this year, to $447.1 billion, as shoppers start to regain their financial footing.

The trade group’s forecast remains slightly below the 10-year average sales gain of 2.5 percent for the November-December holiday period. But, it marks an improvement from the last two years.

In 2009, holiday sales rose a meager 0.4 percent. In 2008, when the recession was in full swing, sales fell 3.9 percent, the first decline in holiday sales in 40 years.

“Though the retail industry is on stronger footing than last year, companies are closely watching key economic indicators like employment and consumer confidence before getting too optimistic that the recession is behind them,” said Matthew Shay, chief executive and president of the New York-based federation.

Retailers are keeping inventories lean to limit the risk of unplanned markdowns, Shay said. Novel marketing programs will be key to driving sales this year, leading more merchants to introduce services and promotions linked to smartphones.

On Tuesday, the International Council of Shopping Centers said it expects retail sales for the November-December holiday period to rise 3 to 3.5 percent, making it the largest increase since 2006 when sales rose 4.4 percent.

The shopping center trade group tracks sales at retail chain stores that have been open at least one year. The retail federation includes a broader universe of retailers. Both exclude auto and restaurant sales.