The holiday shopping season forecasts are starting to roll in, and the slow pace of the recovery is dampening expectations.

Deloitte said Monday that it predicts holiday sales for November through January will increase 2 percent to $852 billion, as households remain focused on reducing debt and increasing savings.

The forecast represents a slight improvement over last year’s 1 percent gain, the Chicago-based consulting firm said.

“Given the unsteady pace of the economic recovery, retailers should expect only a small uptick in holiday sales this year,” said Carl Steidtmann, Deloitte’s chief economist.

Online retailing is forecast to shine as the star of the season for the second year in a row. Deloitte predicts holiday sales online and through catalogs will rise 15 percent as more shoppers look for convenience and compare prices.

At the same time, merchants will be fighting for market share by stepping up marketing on social networks and mobile applications, the firm said. Look for retailers to use digital communications, on smart phones and Facebook, to entice shoppers into their stores.

Retail sales from November 2009 to January 2010, not seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline sales, totaled $834 billion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.